Corona Virus Initial Predictions Were Too Extreme

Dr. Birx Admits Initial Coronavirus COVID-19 Predictions Were Exaggerated

While answering questions with President Trump and the rest of the White House coronavirus task force, Dr. Birx admitted that the initial death estimates were too extreme.

The initial death rate estimates about coron virus covad-19 were wrong and misleading.


Half of those in the UK have already had the corona virus and don't even know it.

Many in the United States have had it also and don't even know it.

Case increase statistics about the corona virus are totally meaningless! 



 

Oxford Model: Coronavirus May Have Already Infected Half of U.K. Population

 
Oxford Study: Coronavirus May Have Infected Half of U.K.

Because testing regimens across the world have varied tremendously, the actual mortality and hospitalization rates of COVID-19 have been hard to pin down. But modeling by researchers at the University of Oxford could provide some welcome good news.Accorording to hypothetical modeling from Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease lab, half of the population of the United Kingdom may have already been infected with the coronavirus.

If this modeling is confirmed in follow-up studies, that a minuscule number of those infected require hospital treatment, with a majority showing very minor symptoms, or none at all.

In the mathematical experiment, the researchers looked at the population who are at risk of a severe infection. While a risk rate of 0.1 percent suggested a high number of infected people — suggesting lower hospitalization and mortality rates — a higher risk rate of 1 percent implied the possibility of a more threatening virus at the population level.

According to the mathematical modeling concerning the 0.1 percent scenario, the coronavirus arrived in mid-January at the latest, and spread undetected for over a month before the first cases were confirmed. Based on a susceptibility-infected-recovery model — a commonly used estimate in epidemiology — with data from case and death reports in the U.K. and Italy, the researchers determined that the initial “herd immunity” strategy of the U.K. government could have been sound.

To see if their math checks out, the Oxford team is now working with researchers at the Universities of Cambridge and Kent to begin antibody testing as soon as this week. “We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” Gupta told the Financial Times.

In an interview with New York’s James Walsh, Pulitzer-winning infectious disease reporter Laurie Garrett explained the public-health necessity of antibody tests:

The most important thing is that that test can be a public-health tool. If we had this antibody test, we can go around randomly selecting people in New York City and find out how many New Yorkers, including right now, have had this virus in their bodies. Since we know the virus has never been in human beings before, anybody who has antibodies against it has been exposed since January.

If we can get this antibody test mass-produced — and I know they’re working on it right now — and put it into commercialization really quickly, this could be a game-changer for the whole pandemic.

One of the things we would love to know right now is how many people who have had pneumonia since January were actually COVID cases? Having answers to that question would make a difference on a policy level.

If we were suddenly seeing a surge in hidden pneumonia cases since mid-February, that would tell us we’re in deep, deep doo-doo; that this thing is like Italy; that we’re going to suddenly skyrocket and our hospitals are going to be overwhelmed.

But if, by contrast, the same number of cases are found in the historic samples going back to the first of January, that would tell us, “Okay, it’s gradually unfolding, we don’t have to go down to lockdown every single person in New York, we may be able to flatten the curve.” And that makes a big difference in terms of how drastic our policies need to be.

Though the Oxford modeling seems promising, like all academic studies reckoning with the coronavirus, it should be read by the public with caution. If antibody tests did not prove the epidemiologists’ best-case findings, the modeling could undercut the success of social distancing measures that public-health experts consider vital to stopping the spread of the virus.

If it does, however, reveal the necessity of having the proper scale of testing, so that governments can make policy determinations that reflect the actual rates of infection and hospitalization. 


Fundamental principles of epidemic spread highlight the immediate need for large-scale serological surveys to assess the stage of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic   PDF 7 Pages





 Editor Note

What the above oxford study means is everything you have been hearing in the media about the corona virus cases and death rate predictions have been totally wrong!

It also actually means the Corna Virus case and death rates are probably about the same as the flu virus.

The study is also revealing that possibly half the people in the United States have had the Corona Virus but do not know it!!


It seems the corona virus is similar to the flu.

People sometimes have the flu and don't know it because there symptoms are not indicating they have had the flu.

There are thousands of people in the US that have already had the coron virus just like in the UK.

THIS MEANS THAT ALL THE MEDIA HYPE ABOUT THE CORONA VIRUS DEATH RATES ARE FAKE AND HAVE KILLED THE US ECONOMY BECAUSE OF INVALID CASE AND DEATH STASTICS ABOUT THE COVID-19 VIRUS!


The FAKE news media will hide the true facts now known that only 1 in a thousand will get the corona virus.

UK can now expect only 20,00 deaths.

This means the US will have fewer deaths than the annual FLU in the US.


Even governor como of newyork is saying people may soon be able to go back to work.

What will the national media report?

The true facts about the corona virus or continue to report invalid stastics about the corona virus.

The news media will not be able to keep reporting the lies about  the  corona virus much longer.

SOON PEOPLE WILL START TO GO BACK TO WORK AND THE ECONOMY WILL TAKE OFF AGAIN!